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david_herdson

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david_herdson
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  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general el

    Since we're doing predictions, here's mine:

    Con 372
    Lab 206
    SNP 43
    LD 7
    Plaid 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    UKIP 0
    NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)

    Con maj 76.

    There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.
  • Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI ends a morning of bad news for the Tories with the

    If my life was on the line to predict the right result, I would likely say tory win with a majority of around 80-100 seats than a hung parliament.

    I would be very, very shocked with a hung parliament. I think the biggest concern is how long can theresa may survive because any tory with ambition could take her out now
    I like David Davis. In hindsight the party made the wrong decision all those years ago to prefer Dave the Europhile over him. He's amazingly solid. Not exciting but very safe.
    And a big part of the May meltdown is the realisation that she is a TINO.
    Are you trolling?

    Davis is a lone rider with strong convictions, which is a combination wholly unsuited to leading a political party. Worse, his convictions are ones which are of fringe interest to the public and which divide his party.